Digital subscriptions remain the top revenue priority for publishers in 2024, but their growth goals will be challenged by an environment that has seen a rise in churn and news avoidance.

The recently released Reuters Institute and the University of Oxford 2023 Digital News Report shows continued subscription growth last year, despite the difficult economic situation. Of the more than 300 digital leaders from more than 50 countries surveyed, 73% reported digital subscriptions were up “a lot” or “a bit” in 2023, with only 8% reporting subscriptions down “a bit” or “a lot.”

From the report: “Looking at the most important future facing revenue sources, digital subscription and membership (80%) has extended its lead over display advertising (72%) as the most important revenue focus for the year ahead.”

However, the climb will be far from easy. Experts have noted a troubling trend in subscription churn and a decrease in regularity. Regularity, meaning the number of days a month in which a subscriber visits, is considered by Northwestern University’s Medill Spiegel Research Center to be the most significant metric to predict churn.

Medill Spiegel Research Center Director Edward Malthouse, in a report released in December, notes that from the middle of 2022 to the present, churn probability has increased steadily.

“The low tide for churn was in the middle of 2021, when the churn rate was about 3%,” he said in the report. “The churn rate has gone up to about 5.5%, which cuts the reader retention rate to 94.5%. And that increase isn’t slowing.”

The churn rate is particularly acute in midsized to smaller publications, Malthouse said.

The International News Media Association’s Greg Piechota, who leads the Readers First Initiative, said the research and modeling he’s worked on show slower but further growth this year.

And, he said, he believes publishers are far from hitting a ceiling* in most markets. When comparing the proportion of people who subscribed to online news last year against those were buying print newspapers in 2002, Piechota says, he saw an average 4.4 times growth opportunity across 35 countries.

He said post-pandemic losses in subscriptions and audience were to be expected since both are heavily dependent on the news cycle.

“Good news: in 2024, the news cycle is likely to be very strong and one should prepare for the spikes in demand for news worldwide,” he said. “The bad news is that the key social platforms avoid the news due to the toxicity of political discussions and publishers’ demands for payments. As a result, publishers depend more on referrals from search which may be soon disrupted, too, by Generative AI-driven search experiences.”

What product, pricing and content innovations may be coming?

With subscription growth slowing and churn rising, the 2023 Digital News Report predicts a number of product and pricing innovations this year. Those include:

  • Product changes: Many publishers already offer bundled subscriptions with add-ons for products like recipes or games, and Reuters/Oxford expects that to keep growing. And they say some publishers may partner with other providers to add extra value to their bundle this year. In addition, the report predicts more publishers will consider a “lite” version to bring younger subscribers in who are interested in news but won’t pay full price.
  • Pricing changes: Reuters/Oxford believe pricing strategies will become more sophisticated this year. For instance, once an initial trial discount runs out, publishers may establish a renewal price based on usage (what they think the consumer might pay), or they may allow more consumers to negotiate prices.
  • Content changes: Many publishers surveyed cited news fatigue and avoidance as a significant obstacle to digital subscription growth. When asked how they plan to combat it, they said they planned to: find better ways of explaining complex issues (67%), deliver news that doesn’t just point out problems but offers potential solutions (44%), and produce more inspiring human stories (43%), according to the report.

So, what should publishers be asking themselves?

Accelerating digital subscription growth this year is achievable by ensuring your content and products are relevant to readers and by establishing your value proposition. It’s critical that we deliver the news where and when readers want it, in the formats that increase engagement, and in a way that has the least friction from a user standpoint.

A few questions you should ask yourself:

  • Is your content unique? You’ll struggle to sign up new subscribers if readers can get the same content elsewhere or don’t find your content relevant to their lives.
  • Do subscribers have a frictionless experience? If your site is full of ads and subscribers repeatedly have to log in to access content, you’re likely to lose them.
  • Are you engaging with subscribers? Engagement will increase frequency and regularity and can be done in many ways, from subscriber-only newsletters to outreach from the editor/publisher to on-site engagement in comments and on social media.
  • Are you listening to the metrics? Data can tell us a lot about our subscribers –– what they read, when they visit the site, when they become less engaged, and much more. Are you monitoring those metrics and changing your tactics based on what you’re seeing?

OK, how can publishers position themselves for growth in 2024?

Publishers looking to accelerate growth and decrease churn this year have a multitude of tactics to consider, from pricing to revamping the onboarding journey to better win-back strategies. But it’s almost impossible to do everything at once, so develop a strategy that takes these into account:

  • Experiment: Instead of trying to do everything, consider where you can move the needle – where you are already strong and can amplify or where you are weak and can improve with simple changes.
  • Set goals: We hold ourselves accountable to what we measure. What are the 3-5 KPIs you want to set for the organization to ensure it is well-positioned for future growth?
  • Engage: Knowing that churn will continue to be a challenge, build a multidiscipline plan for reducing it through smart engagement, marketing and content strategies.
  • Differentiate: What do you have that is worth paying for? How do you stand out from the competition? Focus more heavily on your value proposition.
  • Look to others: Publishers are facing many of the same challenges and can learn from each other. There are great best practices and case studies full of ideas. Just a few:
    • Kauppalehti, Finland’s leading business media, now saves many subscribers at the point of cancellation simply by adding a new “fear of missing out” page to the beginning of its cancellation flow.
    • The Washington Post is winning back more former subscribers after reimagining its post-cancellation flow. Instead of two fairly generic emails with a survey and offer to come back, The Post has a new series of post-cancellation emails – first thanking ex-subscribers for their support, followed by a survey and other emails that focus on engagement and the top subscriber benefits, as well as tailored offers based on their attributes and engagement with prior offers.
    • Keskisuomalainen Oyj (PLC), Finland’s leading regional publisher, increased engagement with subscribers by turning to a company called Twipe, which has newsletter personalization technology, James, to automate and personalize its newsletters.
    • Dagens Næringsliv (DN), Norway’s leading financial newspaper, is seeing strong subscriber growth by listening more closely to its audience and introducing a financial portal that tailors financial news consumption to an individual’s preferences.

Now, what will you do?

Amalie Nash is a coach for the Local Media Association’s Family and Independent Media Sustainability Lab, where her work has focused on digital subscriptions.